ALVIN submarine pressure hull cost overrun

Tom's role on the 2003–04 National Academy of Sciences study estimating the cost of a new Alvin submersible. Woods Hole's $6.5M estimate; Tom's $16M revised estimate; final actual cost ~$40M. Pressure hull fabrication identified as the dominant cost risk.

I'll do a little introduction since the people on the tape didn't see this before. In 2003 or 2004 thereabouts, the National Science Foundation wanted to know if they could afford to build a new Alvin submarine to do deep submersion science over the next fifty years or so. They commissioned a study from the National Academy of Sciences to look at future needs — mostly the future needs of the people who were going to be using the vessel. But they also wanted to know if the twenty-five million dollars they had in their budget was sufficient to build the ship.

The specific cost-estimation episode. Woods Hole estimated $6.5M ($193/lb); Tom estimated $16M ($400/lb plus margin); actual cost ~$37M ($~1,000/lb). Used to teach the discrepancy between Jason 2 cost-per-pound ($320/lb tethered unmanned) and Woods Hole's optimistic projection for a manned untethered vehicle.